Functional Drinks Compass
Busy ground6 public moves, 2024 to 202612 evidence cards

Gut health (prebiotic, probiotic, fiber sodas)

Modern soda reached $1.8 billion in 2024, and PepsiCo paid $1.95 billion for Poppi in 2025. The health case is still thin: the average prebiotic soda has about 5 grams of fiber, and only 7% of adults meet fiber recommendations.

Who it is for: Soft drink portfolio managers, Dairy and kombucha brands, Fiber-curious shoppers.

Open ground

Fiber outside the soda can

Hypothesis: all six gut-health moves found concern prebiotic sodas, while fiber shortfalls are broad, with only 7% of adults meeting recommendations. Soda cans carry about 5 grams on average. Danone puts 5 grams in a drinkable yogurt, which hints at other formats and times of day.

Concept sketches

Sketches drawn from public sources to start a discussion. Each one names the evidence it stands on, the claim rules it has to obey, and what would have to be true for it to work.

Breakfast Fiber Drink

A morning drink that adds fiber to a breakfast shoppers already eat.

A drinkable breakfast product states its fiber amount and sits in the dairy case beside drinkable yogurt. Only 7% of U.S. adults meet fiber recommendations, and a drinkable yogurt already carries 5 grams of prebiotic fiber, close to the average soda can. The brand has to make breakfast the reason to buy, since a soda offers similar fiber at any hour.

What would have to be true
  • The fiber amount per serving meets the FDA test for any claim used
  • Taste and texture hold up cold at breakfast
  • Shoppers see a drink as a way to add fiber
Open question
Can a fiber drink own breakfast before yogurt drinks and shakes add more fiber?
Claim rules it touches
copy that says a drink cures, treats, prevents, or relieves a disease or condition, and avoid supplement-style function claims such as "supports immune health" unless the disclaimer and notification requirements are met, "high in," "good source of," or protein and fiber claims unless the product meets the percent daily value tests, saying a drink's prebiotic fiber delivers gut health benefits unless the amount supports it
Evidence
American Society for Nutrition; American Society for Nutrition, via Newswise

Fiber in the Shake

A protein shake with fiber added, for shoppers who already drink shakes every day.

A ready-to-drink shake adds a stated fiber amount to its protein. A leading shake brand saw ready-to-drink dollar consumption rise 20.4% in the last 13 weeks of fiscal 2025, and only 7% of adults meet fiber recommendations. Fiber in a shake could read as gut health or as feeling full, and each reading carries its own claim risk.

What would have to be true
  • Fiber does not change taste or texture enough to lose repeat buyers
  • Protein and fiber amounts each meet the percent Daily Value test for any claim made
  • Copy states the fiber amount and leaves out gut and appetite claims
Open question
Does fiber in a shake read as gut health, as fullness, or as neither?
Claim rules it touches
copy that says a drink cures, treats, prevents, or relieves a disease or condition, and avoid supplement-style function claims such as "supports immune health" unless the disclaimer and notification requirements are met, "high in," "good source of," or protein and fiber claims unless the product meets the percent daily value tests, saying a drink's prebiotic fiber delivers gut health benefits unless the amount supports it, weight-loss promises, appetite or fat-blocking claims, and drug names such as ozempic or "glp-1 friendly" on drink copy
Evidence
BellRing Brands, SEC filing; American Society for Nutrition

Fiber Facts Soda

A prebiotic soda that prints its fiber and sugar amounts side by side and makes no gut claim.

The front of the can shows fiber grams next to sugar grams in the same type size. Fiber in prebiotic sodas averages about 5 grams and ranges from about 2 to 9, with 5 grams of sugar per 12-ounce can on average. Only 32% of surveyed consumers said they understand both prebiotic and probiotic, and one leading brand was in talks to settle a lawsuit over its health wording.

What would have to be true
  • Shoppers respond to numbers without a health promise
  • The fiber amount holds up against the 2 to 9 gram range
  • Sugar and fiber figures match the nutrition panel
Open question
Does showing 5 grams of fiber beside 5 grams of sugar sell the drink or undercut it?
Claim rules it touches
copy that says a drink cures, treats, prevents, or relieves a disease or condition, and avoid supplement-style function claims such as "supports immune health" unless the disclaimer and notification requirements are met, calling a drink "healthy" without checking the fda definition, "sugar free," "zero sugar," "no added sugar," "reduced sugar," or "low sugar" unless the product meets the defined terms, saying a drink's prebiotic fiber delivers gut health benefits unless the amount supports it
Evidence
American Society for Nutrition, via Newswise; American Society for Nutrition, via Newswise; Zappi; NBC News, via CNBC

What the record says

  • In a Zappi survey of 2,000 U.S. consumers, 43% of regular soda drinkers said they would not switch to prebiotic sodas, while only 10% of diet soda drinkers ruled it out.Zappi, April 9th, 2025
  • An analysis of 108 prebiotic sodas launched from 2021 to 2025 found an average of 35 calories and 5 grams of sugar per 12-ounce can, and nearly two-thirds used non-nutritive sweeteners versus 12% of regular sodas.American Society for Nutrition, via Newswise, July 25th, 2026
  • Circana measured modern soda at $1.8 billion in 2024, up 83% from $983 million in 2023, with poppi at 38% and Olipop at 32.7%.Beverage Industry, June 16th, 2025
  • A Citi analyst put U.S. prebiotic soda at about $820 million in retail sales, roughly 2% of the $42.4 billion soft drink market, and said it more than doubled in a year.Fortune, Feb 18th, 2025
  • A preliminary, not yet peer-reviewed analysis estimated 2025 U.S. prebiotic soda sales at $777 million, with fiber averaging about 5 grams per can and ranging from about 2 to 9 grams.American Society for Nutrition, via Newswise, July 25th, 2026
  • In the Zappi survey, 46% said prebiotic and probiotic sodas are healthier than diet soda, 22% called them a fad, and only 32% said they understand both terms.Zappi, April 9th, 2025
  • Only 7% of U.S. adults meet fiber recommendations, based on NHANES data for 2013 to 2018 (preliminary findings presented in 2021).American Society for Nutrition, June 9th, 2021
  • Olipop says it turned profitable in 2024 as sales doubled to $400 million, and it raised $50 million at a $1.85 billion valuation in February 2025.Food Dive, Feb 12th, 2025
  • Bloomberg reported that Poppi sales exceeded $500 million in 2024.Food Dive, citing Bloomberg, Feb 18th, 2025
  • Coca-Cola found that functional soda has only about 20% market penetration.Food Dive, Feb 18th, 2025
  • Poppi was in talks to settle a lawsuit claiming its drinks are less healthy than the brand says, as PepsiCo agreed to buy it.NBC News, via CNBC, March 17th, 2025
  • FMI's Power of Beverage report says mood support, immune health, and digestive health beverages are growing at double-digit rates.Food Business News, citing FMI, Aug 13th, 2026

Public moves

  • Launched Simply Pop, a prebiotic soda with 6 grams of fiber, under the Simply juice brand.Coca-Cola, Feb 18th, 2025. Source
  • Raised $50 million at a $1.85 billion valuation.Olipop, Feb 12th, 2025. Source
  • Agreed to buy Poppi for $1.95 billion.PepsiCo, March 17th, 2025. Source
  • Closed the Poppi acquisition, which includes a performance-based earnout.PepsiCo, May 21st, 2025. Source
  • Introduced Pepsi Prebiotic Cola with 5 grams of cane sugar, 30 calories, and 3 grams of prebiotic fiber, online in fall 2025 and in stores in early 2026.PepsiCo, July 21st, 2025. Source
  • Launched in the U.K. with Carlsberg Britvic at Tesco and Pret A Manger.Poppi, March 5th, 2026. Source

Earlier in the category

2010

A federal judge refused to dismiss a suit over vitaminwater's health wording, leading to copycat suits that Coca-Cola settled in 2014.

Health claims on a sweet drink invite litigation, and Poppi was in settlement talks over its own claims in 2025. Source

2016

PepsiCo agreed to buy KeVita, a maker of fermented probiotic drinks sold in more than 20,000 North American locations.

Gut-health drinks have been bought by big companies before, and the 2025 prebiotic soda deals repeat the move in a bigger aisle. Source

Claim rules

Avoid: Copy that says a drink cures, treats, prevents, or relieves a disease or condition, and avoid supplement-style function claims such as "supports immune health" unless the disclaimer and notification requirements are met.For dietary supplements, 21 CFR 101.93 allows statements that describe the role of an ingredient in affecting structure or function, but not claims to diagnose, mitigate, treat, cure, or prevent disease, and a product bearing a disease claim may be regulated as a drug. A structure/function statement must carry the disclaimer "This statement has not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. This product is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease." in boldface, and the firm must notify FDA within 30 days of first marketing. Source
Avoid: Calling a drink "healthy" without checking the FDA definition.FDA's final rule on the nutrient content claim "healthy" was published December 27th, 2024, took effect February 25th, 2025, and has a compliance date of February 25th, 2028. FDA describes the claim as voluntary, and a food must contain a required amount of a recommended food group and stay within limits for added sugars, saturated fat, and sodium. Source
Avoid: "sugar free," "zero sugar," "no added sugar," "reduced sugar," or "low sugar" unless the product meets the defined terms.21 CFR 101.60(c) covers sugar claims: "sugar free," "no sugar," and "zero sugar" require less than 0.5 g of sugars per reference amount and per serving, with a "not a low calorie food" or similar statement unless the food is low or reduced calorie. "No added sugar" requires that no added sugars or functionally substitutive ingredients, such as jam or concentrated fruit juice, are used, and "reduced sugar" requires at least 25 percent less sugar than a reference food. Source
Avoid: "high in," "good source of," or protein and fiber claims unless the product meets the percent Daily Value tests.21 CFR 101.54 allows "high," "rich in," or "excellent source of" only at 20 percent or more of the RDI or DRV per reference amount, and "good source" only at 10 to 19 percent. When a protein claim is made, 21 CFR 101.9(c)(7) requires a percent Daily Value statement for protein, calculated from a corrected protein amount that accounts for protein digestibility (PDCAAS). Source
Avoid: Saying a drink's prebiotic fiber delivers gut health benefits unless the amount supports it.In Cobbs v. VNGR Beverage, LLC, No. 3:24-cv-03229, plaintiffs alleged that a soda advertised as gut healthy had only two grams of prebiotic fiber, too little for meaningful gut benefits, with sugar offsetting most of them. The $8.9 million class settlement received preliminary approval on May 23rd, 2025. These were allegations in a private lawsuit, not an FDA ruling. Source
Avoid: Weight-loss promises, appetite or fat-blocking claims, and drug names such as Ozempic or "GLP-1 friendly" on drink copy.FTC's "Gut Check" guide (January 2014) lists claims it treats as false, including weight loss of two pounds or more a week without dieting or exercise, substantial weight loss no matter what or how much a consumer eats, and blocking fat or calorie absorption. Source

Starting questions

  1. Does a gut-health claim survive a 5 gram fiber can?
  2. Who owns gut health once Coca-Cola and PepsiCo both sell it?
  3. Where else in the day could fiber arrive besides a soda?

Back to the map Print this brief

A sample brief from the Functional Drinks Compass by Glider Innovations, built from public sources, Oct 2026.