Six briefs | Functional Drinks Compass

Busy ground3 public moves, 2024 to 202611 evidence cards

Less sugar and zero sugar

Coca-Cola Zero Sugar grew 14% in 2025 while sparkling flavors fell 1%, and zeros and diets are a mid-teens share of its soft drink volume. The new Dietary Guidelines say no amount of added sugar or non-nutritive sweeteners belongs in a healthy diet, which puts the sweeteners behind zero sugar under question.

Who it is for: Soda and juice brand teams, Reformulation and R&D leads, Shoppers cutting sugar.

Open ground

Lower sugar without sweeteners

Hypothesis: the zero-sugar winners all rely on sweeteners, and the new Dietary Guidelines say no amount of non-nutritive sweeteners is part of a healthy diet. Nearly two-thirds of prebiotic sodas use them. The searches found no large brand moves toward reduced sugar without sweeteners. Gatorade Lower Sugar is the nearest example, and the source does not say how it is sweetened.

Concept sketches

Sketches drawn from public sources to start a discussion. Each one names the evidence it stands on, the claim rules it has to obey, and what would have to be true for it to work.

Small Sugar Soda

A soda sweetened with a little real sugar and no sweeteners, for shoppers who read the label.

A sparkling drink with a short ingredient list sits beside the zero-sugar colas, sweetened with a small amount of sugar and no sweeteners. Zero sugar cola grew 14% while sparkling flavors fell 1%, and the Dietary Guidelines say no amount of non-nutritive sweeteners is part of the diet they describe. The test is whether a regular soda drinker accepts the taste.

What would have to be true

Regular soda drinkers rate the taste close to a full-sugar soda
The label describes sugar only in terms the FDA defines
Shoppers read the sweetener line on the pack

Open question

Which brand has the trust to ask shoppers to give up sweeteners and accept some sugar?

Claim rules it touches

calling a drink "healthy" without checking the fda definition, "sugar free," "zero sugar," "no added sugar," "reduced sugar," or "low sugar" unless the product meets the defined terms, "natural" or "all natural" unless the product has nothing artificial or synthetic

Evidence

Beverage Daily; AP, via AZ Family

Sweetener Label Front

A lower sugar drink that names its sweetener on the front of the pack.

A drink brand prints the full sweetener list on the front panel, next to the sugar level. A leading sports drink has 48 grams of sugar in its original version and 75% less in its lower sugar version, and one cola maker says it is looking at the whole tool kit of sweetening options. Showing the recipe invites scrutiny of every ingredient on it.

What would have to be true

Shoppers prefer a named sweetener to a vague one
The sugar level on the front matches a defined FDA term or avoids one
The brand can live with the scrutiny a full list invites

Open question

Does printing the sweetener make shoppers trust the drink more, or make them look harder at it?

Claim rules it touches

"sugar free," "zero sugar," "no added sugar," "reduced sugar," or "low sugar" unless the product meets the defined terms

Evidence

AP, via Fox 9; AP, via 29News

Sugar Budget Can

A small can sized to fit inside a one-meal sugar limit.

A small can carries a printed sugar amount set against the guideline suggestion of under 10 grams of added sugar per meal. It targets shoppers who say they are buying fewer soft drinks, which was 42% in one survey. Most shoppers do not count grams, and a small can may read as less value for the money.

What would have to be true

The printed gram figure matches the nutrition panel
Shoppers pay a similar price for less drink
Guideline language is quoted accurately and never turned into a health promise

Open question

Would a shopper read a sugar budget on the can as help or as scolding?

Claim rules it touches

calling a drink "healthy" without checking the fda definition, "sugar free," "zero sugar," "no added sugar," "reduced sugar," or "low sugar" unless the product meets the defined terms

Evidence

AP, via AZ Family; Attest

What the record says

Coca-Cola Zero Sugar grew 14% for full-year 2025 and 13% in the fourth quarter, while sparkling flavors fell 1% in both periods.Beverage Daily, Feb 10th, 2026
Coca-Cola CEO James Quincey said zeros and diets are now a mid-teens percentage of its total soft drink volume.FoodNavigator-USA, Oct 21st, 2025
The 2025 to 2030 Dietary Guidelines say no amount of added sugars or non-nutritive sweeteners is part of a healthy diet, and suggest staying under 10 grams of added sugar per meal.AP, via AZ Family, Jan 7th, 2026
FDA finalized an updated "healthy" claim that requires a food-group amount and limits on added sugars, sodium, and saturated fat, with three years to comply; plain water now qualifies.FDA, Dec 19th, 2024
Gatorade Thirst Quencher carries 48 grams of sugar; Gatorade Lower Sugar, launched in March 2026, has 75% less.AP, via Fox 9, April 16th, 2026
Keurig Dr Pepper said all of its 2026 carbonated soft drink innovations will be offered in both regular and zero-sugar versions.FoodBev Media, Feb 19th, 2026
Coca-Cola said it will sell a cane-sugar Coke alongside its flagship, with Quincey saying it is looking to use "the whole tool kit of available sweetening options."AP, via 29News, July 22nd, 2025
In a Zappi survey of 2,000 U.S. consumers, 43% of regular soda drinkers said they would not switch to prebiotic sodas, while only 10% of diet soda drinkers ruled it out.Zappi, April 9th, 2025
An analysis of 108 prebiotic sodas launched from 2021 to 2025 found an average of 35 calories and 5 grams of sugar per 12-ounce can, and nearly two-thirds used non-nutritive sweeteners versus 12% of regular sodas.American Society for Nutrition, via Newswise, July 25th, 2026
In a May 2026 Attest survey of 1,000 U.S. adults, 42% said they bought fewer soft drinks, 51% bought more high-protein foods, and 45% reduced alcohol purchases; 14% of respondents were GLP-1 users.Attest, June 25th, 2026
Quincey said GLP-1 users drink less full-sugar soda but more diet soft drinks, and noted "a big shift towards protein drinks" while calling it early days.FoodNavigator-USA, Oct 21st, 2025

Public moves

Launched Gatorade Lower Sugar nationwide with 75% less sugar than Thirst Quencher.Gatorade, March 1st, 2026. Source
Announced 35-plus 2026 beverage varieties, with every carbonated soft drink innovation offered in regular and zero sugar.Keurig Dr Pepper, Feb 19th, 2026. Source
Confirmed a cane-sugar Coke to sit beside the flagship in the U.S. lineup.Coca-Cola, July 22nd, 2025. Source

Earlier in the category

2005

Coca-Cola launched Coke Zero aimed at men 16 to 24, and its U.S. sales rose 20% in 2009.

Zero sugar worked by tasting like the original and reaching a new buyer, which is the test for today's lower-sugar drinks. Source

Claim rules

Avoid: Calling a drink "healthy" without checking the FDA definition.FDA's final rule on the nutrient content claim "healthy" was published December 27th, 2024, took effect February 25th, 2025, and has a compliance date of February 25th, 2028. FDA describes the claim as voluntary, and a food must contain a required amount of a recommended food group and stay within limits for added sugars, saturated fat, and sodium. Source

Avoid: "sugar free," "zero sugar," "no added sugar," "reduced sugar," or "low sugar" unless the product meets the defined terms.21 CFR 101.60(c) covers sugar claims: "sugar free," "no sugar," and "zero sugar" require less than 0.5 g of sugars per reference amount and per serving, with a "not a low calorie food" or similar statement unless the food is low or reduced calorie. "No added sugar" requires that no added sugars or functionally substitutive ingredients, such as jam or concentrated fruit juice, are used, and "reduced sugar" requires at least 25 percent less sugar than a reference food. Source

Avoid: "natural" or "all natural" unless the product has nothing artificial or synthetic.FDA has not engaged in rulemaking to define "natural." Its longstanding policy treats the term as meaning that nothing artificial or synthetic, including all color additives regardless of source, has been included in the food, unless it would normally be expected, and the policy was not intended to address production methods. Source

Starting questions

Which sweetener story can a brand tell if the guidelines treat sweeteners as a problem?
Is a drink with 5 grams of sugar a compromise or a destination?
What would zero sugar look like if it did not try to imitate regular soda?

Busy ground6 public moves, 2024 to 202612 evidence cards

Gut health (prebiotic, probiotic, fiber sodas)

Modern soda reached $1.8 billion in 2024, and PepsiCo paid $1.95 billion for Poppi in 2025. The health case is still thin: the average prebiotic soda has about 5 grams of fiber, and only 7% of adults meet fiber recommendations.

Who it is for: Soft drink portfolio managers, Dairy and kombucha brands, Fiber-curious shoppers.

Open ground

Fiber outside the soda can

Hypothesis: all six gut-health moves found concern prebiotic sodas, while fiber shortfalls are broad, with only 7% of adults meeting recommendations. Soda cans carry about 5 grams on average. Danone puts 5 grams in a drinkable yogurt, which hints at other formats and times of day.

Concept sketches

Sketches drawn from public sources to start a discussion. Each one names the evidence it stands on, the claim rules it has to obey, and what would have to be true for it to work.

Breakfast Fiber Drink

A morning drink that adds fiber to a breakfast shoppers already eat.

A drinkable breakfast product states its fiber amount and sits in the dairy case beside drinkable yogurt. Only 7% of U.S. adults meet fiber recommendations, and a drinkable yogurt already carries 5 grams of prebiotic fiber, close to the average soda can. The brand has to make breakfast the reason to buy, since a soda offers similar fiber at any hour.

What would have to be true

The fiber amount per serving meets the FDA test for any claim used
Taste and texture hold up cold at breakfast
Shoppers see a drink as a way to add fiber

Open question

Can a fiber drink own breakfast before yogurt drinks and shakes add more fiber?

Claim rules it touches

copy that says a drink cures, treats, prevents, or relieves a disease or condition, and avoid supplement-style function claims such as "supports immune health" unless the disclaimer and notification requirements are met, "high in," "good source of," or protein and fiber claims unless the product meets the percent daily value tests, saying a drink's prebiotic fiber delivers gut health benefits unless the amount supports it

Evidence

American Society for Nutrition; American Society for Nutrition, via Newswise

Fiber in the Shake

A protein shake with fiber added, for shoppers who already drink shakes every day.

A ready-to-drink shake adds a stated fiber amount to its protein. A leading shake brand saw ready-to-drink dollar consumption rise 20.4% in the last 13 weeks of fiscal 2025, and only 7% of adults meet fiber recommendations. Fiber in a shake could read as gut health or as feeling full, and each reading carries its own claim risk.

What would have to be true

Fiber does not change taste or texture enough to lose repeat buyers
Protein and fiber amounts each meet the percent Daily Value test for any claim made
Copy states the fiber amount and leaves out gut and appetite claims

Open question

Does fiber in a shake read as gut health, as fullness, or as neither?

Claim rules it touches

copy that says a drink cures, treats, prevents, or relieves a disease or condition, and avoid supplement-style function claims such as "supports immune health" unless the disclaimer and notification requirements are met, "high in," "good source of," or protein and fiber claims unless the product meets the percent daily value tests, saying a drink's prebiotic fiber delivers gut health benefits unless the amount supports it, weight-loss promises, appetite or fat-blocking claims, and drug names such as ozempic or "glp-1 friendly" on drink copy

Evidence

BellRing Brands, SEC filing; American Society for Nutrition

Fiber Facts Soda

A prebiotic soda that prints its fiber and sugar amounts side by side and makes no gut claim.

The front of the can shows fiber grams next to sugar grams in the same type size. Fiber in prebiotic sodas averages about 5 grams and ranges from about 2 to 9, with 5 grams of sugar per 12-ounce can on average. Only 32% of surveyed consumers said they understand both prebiotic and probiotic, and one leading brand was in talks to settle a lawsuit over its health wording.

What would have to be true

Shoppers respond to numbers without a health promise
The fiber amount holds up against the 2 to 9 gram range
Sugar and fiber figures match the nutrition panel

Open question

Does showing 5 grams of fiber beside 5 grams of sugar sell the drink or undercut it?

Claim rules it touches

copy that says a drink cures, treats, prevents, or relieves a disease or condition, and avoid supplement-style function claims such as "supports immune health" unless the disclaimer and notification requirements are met, calling a drink "healthy" without checking the fda definition, "sugar free," "zero sugar," "no added sugar," "reduced sugar," or "low sugar" unless the product meets the defined terms, saying a drink's prebiotic fiber delivers gut health benefits unless the amount supports it

Evidence

American Society for Nutrition, via Newswise; American Society for Nutrition, via Newswise; Zappi; NBC News, via CNBC

What the record says

In a Zappi survey of 2,000 U.S. consumers, 43% of regular soda drinkers said they would not switch to prebiotic sodas, while only 10% of diet soda drinkers ruled it out.Zappi, April 9th, 2025
An analysis of 108 prebiotic sodas launched from 2021 to 2025 found an average of 35 calories and 5 grams of sugar per 12-ounce can, and nearly two-thirds used non-nutritive sweeteners versus 12% of regular sodas.American Society for Nutrition, via Newswise, July 25th, 2026
Circana measured modern soda at $1.8 billion in 2024, up 83% from $983 million in 2023, with poppi at 38% and Olipop at 32.7%.Beverage Industry, June 16th, 2025
A Citi analyst put U.S. prebiotic soda at about $820 million in retail sales, roughly 2% of the $42.4 billion soft drink market, and said it more than doubled in a year.Fortune, Feb 18th, 2025
A preliminary, not yet peer-reviewed analysis estimated 2025 U.S. prebiotic soda sales at $777 million, with fiber averaging about 5 grams per can and ranging from about 2 to 9 grams.American Society for Nutrition, via Newswise, July 25th, 2026
In the Zappi survey, 46% said prebiotic and probiotic sodas are healthier than diet soda, 22% called them a fad, and only 32% said they understand both terms.Zappi, April 9th, 2025
Only 7% of U.S. adults meet fiber recommendations, based on NHANES data for 2013 to 2018 (preliminary findings presented in 2021).American Society for Nutrition, June 9th, 2021
Olipop says it turned profitable in 2024 as sales doubled to $400 million, and it raised $50 million at a $1.85 billion valuation in February 2025.Food Dive, Feb 12th, 2025
Bloomberg reported that Poppi sales exceeded $500 million in 2024.Food Dive, citing Bloomberg, Feb 18th, 2025
Coca-Cola found that functional soda has only about 20% market penetration.Food Dive, Feb 18th, 2025
Poppi was in talks to settle a lawsuit claiming its drinks are less healthy than the brand says, as PepsiCo agreed to buy it.NBC News, via CNBC, March 17th, 2025
FMI's Power of Beverage report says mood support, immune health, and digestive health beverages are growing at double-digit rates.Food Business News, citing FMI, Aug 13th, 2026

Public moves

Launched Simply Pop, a prebiotic soda with 6 grams of fiber, under the Simply juice brand.Coca-Cola, Feb 18th, 2025. Source
Raised $50 million at a $1.85 billion valuation.Olipop, Feb 12th, 2025. Source
Agreed to buy Poppi for $1.95 billion.PepsiCo, March 17th, 2025. Source
Closed the Poppi acquisition, which includes a performance-based earnout.PepsiCo, May 21st, 2025. Source
Introduced Pepsi Prebiotic Cola with 5 grams of cane sugar, 30 calories, and 3 grams of prebiotic fiber, online in fall 2025 and in stores in early 2026.PepsiCo, July 21st, 2025. Source
Launched in the U.K. with Carlsberg Britvic at Tesco and Pret A Manger.Poppi, March 5th, 2026. Source

Earlier in the category

2010

A federal judge refused to dismiss a suit over vitaminwater's health wording, leading to copycat suits that Coca-Cola settled in 2014.

Health claims on a sweet drink invite litigation, and Poppi was in settlement talks over its own claims in 2025. Source

2016

PepsiCo agreed to buy KeVita, a maker of fermented probiotic drinks sold in more than 20,000 North American locations.

Gut-health drinks have been bought by big companies before, and the 2025 prebiotic soda deals repeat the move in a bigger aisle. Source

Claim rules

Avoid: Copy that says a drink cures, treats, prevents, or relieves a disease or condition, and avoid supplement-style function claims such as "supports immune health" unless the disclaimer and notification requirements are met.For dietary supplements, 21 CFR 101.93 allows statements that describe the role of an ingredient in affecting structure or function, but not claims to diagnose, mitigate, treat, cure, or prevent disease, and a product bearing a disease claim may be regulated as a drug. A structure/function statement must carry the disclaimer "This statement has not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. This product is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease." in boldface, and the firm must notify FDA within 30 days of first marketing. Source

Avoid: Calling a drink "healthy" without checking the FDA definition.FDA's final rule on the nutrient content claim "healthy" was published December 27th, 2024, took effect February 25th, 2025, and has a compliance date of February 25th, 2028. FDA describes the claim as voluntary, and a food must contain a required amount of a recommended food group and stay within limits for added sugars, saturated fat, and sodium. Source

Avoid: "sugar free," "zero sugar," "no added sugar," "reduced sugar," or "low sugar" unless the product meets the defined terms.21 CFR 101.60(c) covers sugar claims: "sugar free," "no sugar," and "zero sugar" require less than 0.5 g of sugars per reference amount and per serving, with a "not a low calorie food" or similar statement unless the food is low or reduced calorie. "No added sugar" requires that no added sugars or functionally substitutive ingredients, such as jam or concentrated fruit juice, are used, and "reduced sugar" requires at least 25 percent less sugar than a reference food. Source

Avoid: "high in," "good source of," or protein and fiber claims unless the product meets the percent Daily Value tests.21 CFR 101.54 allows "high," "rich in," or "excellent source of" only at 20 percent or more of the RDI or DRV per reference amount, and "good source" only at 10 to 19 percent. When a protein claim is made, 21 CFR 101.9(c)(7) requires a percent Daily Value statement for protein, calculated from a corrected protein amount that accounts for protein digestibility (PDCAAS). Source

Avoid: Saying a drink's prebiotic fiber delivers gut health benefits unless the amount supports it.In Cobbs v. VNGR Beverage, LLC, No. 3:24-cv-03229, plaintiffs alleged that a soda advertised as gut healthy had only two grams of prebiotic fiber, too little for meaningful gut benefits, with sugar offsetting most of them. The $8.9 million class settlement received preliminary approval on May 23rd, 2025. These were allegations in a private lawsuit, not an FDA ruling. Source

Avoid: Weight-loss promises, appetite or fat-blocking claims, and drug names such as Ozempic or "GLP-1 friendly" on drink copy.FTC's "Gut Check" guide (January 2014) lists claims it treats as false, including weight loss of two pounds or more a week without dieting or exercise, substantial weight loss no matter what or how much a consumer eats, and blocking fat or calorie absorption. Source

Starting questions

Does a gut-health claim survive a 5 gram fiber can?
Who owns gut health once Coca-Cola and PepsiCo both sell it?
Where else in the day could fiber arrive besides a soda?

Busy ground5 public moves, 2024 to 202610 evidence cards

The GLP-1 era (protein drinks, satiety, smaller portions, nutrient density)

About 23% of U.S. households have a GLP-1 user, and Circana expects them to buy 35% of food and beverage units by 2030. Protein is the visible response so far, from Premier Protein to Starbucks and Nestle.

Who it is for: Dairy and nutrition brands, Foodservice menu developers, People on GLP-1 drugs.

Open ground

Hydration built for people on GLP-1 drugs

Hypothesis: the GLP-1 response so far is protein. The launches found in searches were Nestle, Danone, Starbucks, Core Power, and small protein sodas, and none was a hydration drink. Kantar found 24% of U.S. GLP-1 users sought hydrating drinks with electrolytes. The only GLP-1 hydration products the searches turned up were British.

Concept sketches

Sketches drawn from public sources to start a discussion. Each one names the evidence it stands on, the claim rules it has to obey, and what would have to be true for it to work.

Electrolyte Water for Smaller Meals

A light electrolyte drink for shoppers who are eating smaller meals.

A lightly flavored electrolyte drink in a small bottle is shelved with protein shakes. In a Kantar study, 24% of U.S. GLP-1 users sought hydrating drinks with added electrolytes and collagen, and about 23% of households have a GLP-1 user. No drug name appears on the pack, so the buyer has to recognize themselves from the copy.

What would have to be true

Hydration demand among these users matches the Kantar figure
Copy works for a shopper without naming a medication
Electrolyte and collagen amounts can be described without a function claim

Open question

Does the shopper look for this drink next to protein, next to sports drinks, or somewhere else?

Claim rules it touches

copy that says a drink cures, treats, prevents, or relieves a disease or condition, and avoid supplement-style function claims such as "supports immune health" unless the disclaimer and notification requirements are met, weight-loss promises, appetite or fat-blocking claims, and drug names such as ozempic or "glp-1 friendly" on drink copy

Evidence

Beverage Daily, citing Kantar; Food Dive, citing Circana

Cafe Hydration Pairing

A cafe menu pairs a protein latte with a hydration drink in one order.

A national coffee chain rolled out protein lattes with up to 36 grams of protein in a 16-ounce drink. A chain could add a hydrating drink to the same order, aimed at the 24% of U.S. GLP-1 users who sought electrolytes. The menu sells it as a pairing and never mentions a drug.

What would have to be true

Guests who buy protein drinks want a second drink with them
Staff can describe the pairing without health claims
Protein amounts shown meet the percent Daily Value rule

Open question

Is the hydration drink an add-on at the register or part of the core menu?

Claim rules it touches

copy that says a drink cures, treats, prevents, or relieves a disease or condition, and avoid supplement-style function claims such as "supports immune health" unless the disclaimer and notification requirements are met, "high in," "good source of," or protein and fiber claims unless the product meets the percent daily value tests, weight-loss promises, appetite or fat-blocking claims, and drug names such as ozempic or "glp-1 friendly" on drink copy

Evidence

Beverage Daily, citing Kantar

Daily Protein Target Shake

A protein drink built around the new daily protein recommendation.

A shake is sized and labeled around the Dietary Guidelines range of 1.2 to 1.6 grams of protein per kilogram of body weight. Ready-to-drink shake sales are already rising, so the job is to say how much of a day's target one bottle covers. One dairy maker cites data that a fifth of weight lost on GLP-1 drugs is muscle, a fact the copy cannot use because it points toward weight loss.

What would have to be true

One bottle can state a percent Daily Value for protein
Shoppers understand a target given per kilogram
Muscle language stays out of the copy unless a claim rule allows it

Open question

Can a shake talk about daily targets without sounding like a diet product?

Claim rules it touches

copy that says a drink cures, treats, prevents, or relieves a disease or condition, and avoid supplement-style function claims such as "supports immune health" unless the disclaimer and notification requirements are met, "high in," "good source of," or protein and fiber claims unless the product meets the percent daily value tests, weight-loss promises, appetite or fat-blocking claims, and drug names such as ozempic or "glp-1 friendly" on drink copy

Evidence

AP, via AZ Family; BellRing Brands, SEC filing; Food Dive

What the record says

In a May 2026 Attest survey of 1,000 U.S. adults, 42% said they bought fewer soft drinks, 51% bought more high-protein foods, and 45% reduced alcohol purchases; 14% of respondents were GLP-1 users.Attest, June 25th, 2026
Circana says about 23% of U.S. households have a GLP-1 user, and projects those households will account for 35% of food and beverage units sold by 2030.Food Dive, citing Circana, Nov 25th, 2025
In a Kantar study, 24% of U.S. GLP-1 users sought hydrating drinks with added electrolytes and collagen.Beverage Daily, citing Kantar, March 4th, 2026
Kantar reports 71% of global GLP-1 users restrict alcohol, and 45% of U.S. users express some preference for switching to lighter, zero-alcohol, low-alcohol, or premium drinks.Beverage Daily, citing Kantar, March 4th, 2026
Quincey said GLP-1 users drink less full-sugar soda but more diet soft drinks, and noted "a big shift towards protein drinks" while calling it early days.FoodNavigator-USA, Oct 21st, 2025
Core Power has grown tenfold since Coca-Cola bought it about a decade ago, and a $650 million fairlife plant in Webster, New York, due in 2026, should add 30% to fairlife capacity.FoodNavigator-USA, Oct 21st, 2025
BellRing fiscal 2025 net sales were $2,316.6 million, up 16.1%; Premier Protein sales rose 16.8%, and its ready-to-drink shake dollar consumption rose 20.4% in the final 13 weeks.BellRing Brands, SEC filing, Nov 18th, 2025
The 2025 to 2030 Dietary Guidelines raise recommended protein intake to 1.2 to 1.6 grams per kilogram of body weight, up from 0.8.AP, via AZ Family, Jan 7th, 2026
Danone cites roughly 10% of the U.S. population as having tried or used GLP-1 drugs, and data from the American College of Lifestyle Medicine that a fifth of weight lost on them is muscle.Food Dive, Aug 11th, 2025
Nestle scientists reported that a pre-meal drink with 10 grams of whey protein microgels lowered glucose response and raised GLP-1 levels, in a study published in Metabolites.New Food Magazine, April 16th, 2025

Public moves

Launched Boost Advanced with 35 grams of protein and tested Boost Pre-Meal Hunger Support and Full Factor in U.S. stores.Nestle, April 16th, 2025. Source
Launched Oikos Fusion at Walmart, a drinkable yogurt with 23 grams of protein and 5 grams of prebiotic fiber, for people on GLP-1 drugs.Danone, Aug 11th, 2025. Source
Rolled out protein lattes and protein cold foam with up to 36 grams of protein in a 16-ounce drink.Starbucks, Sept 29th, 2025. Source
Reported Core Power up tenfold in a decade and a $650 million fairlife plant due in 2026 to add capacity.Coca-Cola, Oct 21st, 2025. Source
Launched whey-protein sodas (SkyPop, Genius Gourmet, Clean Simple Eats) with 10 to 30 grams of protein per can.Small protein soda brands, Feb 12th, 2026. Source

Claim rules

Avoid: Copy that says a drink cures, treats, prevents, or relieves a disease or condition, and avoid supplement-style function claims such as "supports immune health" unless the disclaimer and notification requirements are met.For dietary supplements, 21 CFR 101.93 allows statements that describe the role of an ingredient in affecting structure or function, but not claims to diagnose, mitigate, treat, cure, or prevent disease, and a product bearing a disease claim may be regulated as a drug. A structure/function statement must carry the disclaimer "This statement has not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. This product is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease." in boldface, and the firm must notify FDA within 30 days of first marketing. Source

Avoid: "high in," "good source of," or protein and fiber claims unless the product meets the percent Daily Value tests.21 CFR 101.54 allows "high," "rich in," or "excellent source of" only at 20 percent or more of the RDI or DRV per reference amount, and "good source" only at 10 to 19 percent. When a protein claim is made, 21 CFR 101.9(c)(7) requires a percent Daily Value statement for protein, calculated from a corrected protein amount that accounts for protein digestibility (PDCAAS). Source

Avoid: Weight-loss promises, appetite or fat-blocking claims, and drug names such as Ozempic or "GLP-1 friendly" on drink copy.FTC's "Gut Check" guide (January 2014) lists claims it treats as false, including weight loss of two pounds or more a week without dieting or exercise, substantial weight loss no matter what or how much a consumer eats, and blocking fat or calorie absorption. Source

Starting questions

What should a drink do for someone who eats much less?
Can a brand serve GLP-1 users without naming the drug?
Which comes first for this buyer, protein, fiber, or hydration?

Busy ground4 public moves, 2024 to 20266 evidence cards

Calm, mood, and sleep (adaptogens, magnesium, L-theanine, functional mushrooms)

Calm drinks are small but moving fast, with Trip claiming $100 million in 2025 revenue and Recess raising $30 million. The evidence base for the ingredients is not part of this shelf, and the claims are mostly company figures.

Who it is for: Functional shot and soda brands, Beer and spirits innovation teams, Stressed adults seeking calm.

Concept sketches

Sketches drawn from public sources to start a discussion. Each one names the evidence it stands on, the claim rules it has to obey, and what would have to be true for it to work.

Evening Wind-Down Soda

A sparkling drink to mark the end of the workday.

A sparkling drink with no cannabis ingredients is built for the hour when a shopper might open a beer or pour a glass of wine. A calm-drink maker says 45% of Gen Z adults sometimes swap alcohol for another drink (c33, a company claim), and a magnesium and L-theanine can reached about 1,000 Walmart stores at $2.79. The drink needs a calm story that never claims to treat stress.

What would have to be true

Ingredient evidence supports whatever calm statement goes on the pack
Any structure or function statement carries the FDA disclaimer and notification
Shoppers pay a premium for a drink at dinner time

Open question

Will adults buy a calm drink to replace an evening drink, or only as an extra?

Claim rules it touches

copy that says a drink cures, treats, prevents, or relieves a disease or condition, and avoid supplement-style function claims such as "supports immune health" unless the disclaimer and notification requirements are met, cbd, cannabidiol, or thc on drink copy

Evidence

FoodBev Media

Midday Calm Can

A calm drink sold for the middle of the workday.

A slim can is merchandised at lunch and in the afternoon, near coffee and snacks in grocery and convenience stores. One calm brand gets 95% of sales from its magnesium-based Mood line and is sold in over 15,000 U.S. stores, and another put a drink with magnesium, lion's mane, ashwagandha, and L-theanine into Whole Foods, Sprouts, and Walmart. The tension is whether calm at 2 p.m. reads as useful or as drowsy.

What would have to be true

Shoppers want calm during work hours
Ingredients are described without a disease or sleep claim
Each ingredient amount is known and printed

Open question

Does a calm drink at work read as relief or as a risk to alertness?

Claim rules it touches

copy that says a drink cures, treats, prevents, or relieves a disease or condition, and avoid supplement-style function claims such as "supports immune health" unless the disclaimer and notification requirements are met, caffeine claims that skip the amount or that target children and teens, cbd, cannabidiol, or thc on drink copy

Evidence

Athletech News

What the record says

Strategic Market Research estimates the "chill out" drink market will grow at 8.1% a year to $21.6 billion by 2030.Beverage Daily, March 17th, 2026
FMI's Power of Beverage report says mood support, immune health, and digestive health beverages are growing at double-digit rates.Food Business News, citing FMI, Aug 13th, 2026
Trip says it reached $100 million in revenue in 2025 profitably and forecasts more than $200 million in 2026 (company claim).Trip press release, via Retail Dive, Oct 2nd, 2025
Recess raised a $30 million Series B, is sold in over 15,000 U.S. stores, and gets 95% of sales from its magnesium-based Mood line.Athletech News, Oct 30th, 2025
Trip says calming drinks are the fastest-growing U.S. functional segment and cites data that 45% of Gen Z adults sometimes swap alcohol for another drink and 66% of adults are cutting back on sugar (company claims).FoodBev Media, June 2nd, 2026
Federal law caps hemp-derived products at 0.4 mg of total THC per container; a funding bill signed on Sept 2nd, 2026 moved the start of that cap from Nov 12th to Dec 11th, 2026, without a permanent resolution.Foley Hoag, Cannabis and the Law, Sept 15th, 2026

Public moves

Launched Cherry Lemon as a Whole Foods exclusive and announced $100 million in 2025 revenue.Trip, Oct 2nd, 2025. Source
Raised a $30 million Series B led by CAVU Consumer Partners and named a co-CEO.Recess, Oct 30th, 2025. Source
Launched Tropical Mango, with magnesium, lion's mane, ashwagandha, and L-theanine, at Whole Foods, Sprouts, and Walmart.Trip, June 2nd, 2026. Source
Launched a magnesium L-threonate and L-theanine sparkling drink in about 1,000 Walmart stores at $2.79 a can.Unwind, Oct 7th, 2026. Source

Earlier in the category

1997

Red Bull entered the U.S. in four western states with an 8.3-ounce can priced around $2.

A new functional occasion at a premium price built a category, and calm drinks are now trying to do the same for winding down. Source

Claim rules

Avoid: Copy that says a drink cures, treats, prevents, or relieves a disease or condition, and avoid supplement-style function claims such as "supports immune health" unless the disclaimer and notification requirements are met.For dietary supplements, 21 CFR 101.93 allows statements that describe the role of an ingredient in affecting structure or function, but not claims to diagnose, mitigate, treat, cure, or prevent disease, and a product bearing a disease claim may be regulated as a drug. A structure/function statement must carry the disclaimer "This statement has not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. This product is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease." in boldface, and the firm must notify FDA within 30 days of first marketing. Source

Avoid: Caffeine claims that skip the amount or that target children and teens.FDA cites 400 milligrams a day as an amount not generally linked to negative effects for most adults, and says medical experts advise against energy drinks for children and teens. FDA has no regulation specific to energy drinks, and added caffeine must be listed in the ingredient list of a packaged food. Source

Avoid: CBD, cannabidiol, or THC on drink copy.FDA states that it is a prohibited act to introduce into interstate commerce any food to which THC or CBD has been added, and that THC and CBD products are excluded from the dietary supplement definition under section 201(ff)(3)(B). FDA says ingredients from parts of the cannabis plant that do not contain THC or CBD might fall outside that prohibition. Source

Starting questions

What evidence would make a calm claim durable?
Is calm a bedtime product, a daytime product, or a replacement for a drink after work?
Who wins calm: a soda brand, a supplement brand, or a beer company?

Busy ground4 public moves, 2024 to 20266 evidence cards

Hydration and electrolytes

Sports drink mix units rose nearly 20% in the year to March 2026 while bottled water was flat, and Mintel says 60% of sports drink buyers are not athletes. Gatorade, Powerade, and Campbell's have all moved toward the non-athlete buyer.

Who it is for: Sports drink and water brands, Supplement and powder brands, Non-athlete daily hydrators.

Concept sketches

Sketches drawn from public sources to start a discussion. Each one names the evidence it stands on, the claim rules it has to obey, and what would have to be true for it to work.

Desk Hydration Sticks

A single-serve hydration stick for people who are not athletes and want something besides plain water.

Single-serve powder sticks are sold in office and home-delivery packs with a quiet flavor line. Sports drink mixes rose nearly 20% in units while bottled water was flat, and the article counts at least 150 brands in non-athlete hydration. A vegetable juice company has announced electrolyte drink mix sticks and cans, and 60% of sports drink buyers are not athletes.

What would have to be true

Non-athletes buy a powder for daily use
A flavor and price stand out among 150 or more brands
Single-serve packaging draws no complaints from shoppers

Open question

What keeps a desk stick from turning into a commodity next to plain water?

Claim rules it touches

copy that says a drink cures, treats, prevents, or relieves a disease or condition, and avoid supplement-style function claims such as "supports immune health" unless the disclaimer and notification requirements are met, "sugar free," "zero sugar," "no added sugar," "reduced sugar," or "low sugar" unless the product meets the defined terms

Evidence

AP, via Fox 9, citing Circana; AP, via Fox 9, citing Mintel

Occasion-Based Hydration Shelf

A shelf set that groups hydration drinks by when shoppers use them.

A retailer groups mixes, bottled waters, and sports drinks into morning, workday, and workout zones instead of by brand. Mixes are growing while bottled water is flat, and one imported electrolyte drink generates roughly $400 million in U.S. retail sales. Since 60% of sports drink buyers are not athletes, the workout zone covers only part of the shopper base.

What would have to be true

Shoppers browse hydration by occasion
Brands accept shelf positions set by occasion
Shelf tags use defined terms for any sugar claim

Open question

Would brands that lose a sports aisle position accept the move?

Claim rules it touches

"sugar free," "zero sugar," "no added sugar," "reduced sugar," or "low sugar" unless the product meets the defined terms

Evidence

AP, via Fox 9, citing Circana; Food Dive; AP, via Fox 9, citing Mintel

What the record says

Gatorade Thirst Quencher carries 48 grams of sugar; Gatorade Lower Sugar, launched in March 2026, has 75% less.AP, via Fox 9, April 16th, 2026
In a Kantar study, 24% of U.S. GLP-1 users sought hydrating drinks with added electrolytes and collagen.Beverage Daily, citing Kantar, March 4th, 2026
Mintel says 60% of sports drink buyers are not athletes.AP, via Fox 9, citing Mintel, April 16th, 2026
Circana says unit sales of sports drink mixes rose nearly 20% in the year ending March 22, 2026, while bottled water was flat; the article says at least 150 brands have entered non-athlete hydration in recent years.AP, via Fox 9, citing Circana, April 16th, 2026
LMNT passed $206 million in sales in 2023, nearly triple its 2022 level.Sherwood News, Sept 5th, 2024
Electrolit generates roughly $400 million in U.S. retail sales a year, and is building a $400 million plant in Waco, Texas.Food Dive, Nov 19th, 2024

Public moves

Launched Powerade Power Water, claiming 50% more electrolytes than competitors, nationwide.Powerade, Oct 22nd, 2025. Source
Announced a $400 million Waco, Texas plant, the first U.S. factory for Electrolit, which KDP distributes.Electrolit and Keurig Dr Pepper, Nov 19th, 2024. Source
Began marketing sports drinks to non-athletes and said a Longer Lasting product is in development.Gatorade, April 16th, 2026. Source
Announced V8 Energy with Electrolytes in drink mix sticks and cans, with retail rollout in 2027.Campbell's (V8), Sept 3rd, 2026. Source

Earlier in the category

2007

Coca-Cola agreed to buy Glaceau, maker of vitaminwater, for $4.1 billion.

A large bottler paid for a functional water brand, as PepsiCo did for Poppi in 2025. Source

2016

Dr Pepper Snapple agreed to pay $1.7 billion for Bai, an antioxidant-infused drink with about $120 million in sales the year before.

Buyers paid for a fast-growing enhanced drink on projected sales, so growth claims deserve a check against later results. Source

Claim rules

Avoid: Copy that says a drink cures, treats, prevents, or relieves a disease or condition, and avoid supplement-style function claims such as "supports immune health" unless the disclaimer and notification requirements are met.For dietary supplements, 21 CFR 101.93 allows statements that describe the role of an ingredient in affecting structure or function, but not claims to diagnose, mitigate, treat, cure, or prevent disease, and a product bearing a disease claim may be regulated as a drug. A structure/function statement must carry the disclaimer "This statement has not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. This product is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease." in boldface, and the firm must notify FDA within 30 days of first marketing. Source

Avoid: "sugar free," "zero sugar," "no added sugar," "reduced sugar," or "low sugar" unless the product meets the defined terms.21 CFR 101.60(c) covers sugar claims: "sugar free," "no sugar," and "zero sugar" require less than 0.5 g of sugars per reference amount and per serving, with a "not a low calorie food" or similar statement unless the food is low or reduced calorie. "No added sugar" requires that no added sugars or functionally substitutive ingredients, such as jam or concentrated fruit juice, are used, and "reduced sugar" requires at least 25 percent less sugar than a reference food. Source

Starting questions

Who is the buyer once the athlete is gone?
Is a sports drink with less sugar still a sports drink?
What stops a powder from being the whole category?

Busy ground5 public moves, 2024 to 202610 evidence cards

Alcohol-free social drinks (non-alcoholic beer, spirits, functional social tonics)

Only 54% of U.S. adults say they drink, a record low, and U.S. non-alcoholic beer sales rose 159% from 2021 to 2025. Beer makers have moved fast, while non-alcohol spirits are growing from a small base.

Who it is for: Brewers and distillers, Mixer and soda brands, Adults moderating alcohol.

Open ground

Alcohol-free social drinks after the hemp THC deadline

Hypothesis: the federal cap of 0.4 mg THC per container is due to take effect on Dec 11th, 2026, which may remove a non-alcohol social drink option from shelves and bars. Gallup shows fewer adults drinking, and the non-alcohol moves found are mostly beer. Hiyo is the one social tonic with a major backer. The status of the delay was not confirmed.

Concept sketches

Sketches drawn from public sources to start a discussion. Each one names the evidence it stands on, the claim rules it has to obey, and what would have to be true for it to work.

Social Tonic After Hemp

A social drink with no alcohol for adults at a bar or dinner who want a ritual and a clear head.

A tonic is served over ice in bars and sold chilled in grocery, priced like a cocktail mixer. A federal cap of 0.4 mg THC per container is due on Dec 11th, 2026, and 54% of U.S. adults say they drink alcohol, a record low. One major alcohol company took a minority stake in a social tonic sold in about 3,000 locations.

What would have to be true

The hemp cap schedule is checked on the day the concept is shown
Adults who used hemp drinks accept a drink with no buzz
Bars list it at a cocktail price

Open question

Who gets the occasion if hemp THC drinks leave the market?

Claim rules it touches

cbd, cannabidiol, or thc on drink copy, "non-alcoholic," "alcohol free," or "0

Evidence

Foley Hoag, Cannabis and the Law; Michigan Public, reporting Gallup

Bar Menu Starter Kit

A ready-to-serve option with no alcohol that a bar can put on its menu with little work.

A brand supplies bars with a bottle, a printed menu card, and a suggested serve at a cocktail price. Non-alcoholic beer reached 2.5% of beer volume after sales grew 159% from 2021 to 2025, and a social tonic sold in about 3,000 locations has a major backer. Bars need a reason beyond demand, so the kit shows the margin.

What would have to be true

Bars want a margin that matches a cocktail
Servers can describe the drink in one sentence
Label terms follow the TTB rule if the drink is a malt beverage

Open question

What price and margin would make a bar choose this over a non-alcoholic beer?

Claim rules it touches

cbd, cannabidiol, or thc on drink copy, "non-alcoholic," "alcohol free," or "0

Evidence

NACS Daily

Zero Proof Dinner Flight

A set of three small pours with no alcohol, matched to the courses of a restaurant dinner.

A restaurant offers a flight of small pours built from non-alcohol spirits, priced as a set. Non-alcohol spirits volume more than doubled in the year through August 2, 2025, and Kantar reports 45% of U.S. GLP-1 users express some preference for lighter, zero-alcohol, or low-alcohol drinks. Guests may balk at paying cocktail prices for a drink with no alcohol.

What would have to be true

Guests pay near cocktail prices for a flight
Products in the flight follow TTB label rules
Menu copy leaves out any drug or weight reference

Open question

Does a flight make non-alcohol spirits a main event or a side order?

Claim rules it touches

weight-loss promises, appetite or fat-blocking claims, and drug names such as ozempic or "glp-1 friendly" on drink copy, "non-alcoholic," "alcohol free," or "0

Evidence

Shanken News Daily; Beverage Daily, citing Kantar

What the record says

In a May 2026 Attest survey of 1,000 U.S. adults, 42% said they bought fewer soft drinks, 51% bought more high-protein foods, and 45% reduced alcohol purchases; 14% of respondents were GLP-1 users.Attest, June 25th, 2026
Kantar reports 71% of global GLP-1 users restrict alcohol, and 45% of U.S. users express some preference for switching to lighter, zero-alcohol, low-alcohol, or premium drinks.Beverage Daily, citing Kantar, March 4th, 2026
Trip says calming drinks are the fastest-growing U.S. functional segment and cites data that 45% of Gen Z adults sometimes swap alcohol for another drink and 66% of adults are cutting back on sugar (company claims).FoodBev Media, June 2nd, 2026
Federal law caps hemp-derived products at 0.4 mg of total THC per container; a funding bill signed on Sept 2nd, 2026 moved the start of that cap from Nov 12th to Dec 11th, 2026, without a permanent resolution.Foley Hoag, Cannabis and the Law, Sept 15th, 2026
Gallup found 54% of U.S. adults drink alcohol, a record low, and 66% of adults 18 to 34 say moderate drinking is harmful.Michigan Public, reporting Gallup, Aug 13th, 2025
The Surgeon General reported that alcohol causes about 100,000 U.S. cancer cases and 20,000 cancer deaths a year, and only 31.2% of Americans knew liquor affects cancer risk.Healio, Jan 3rd, 2025
The Brewers Association reports U.S. non-alcoholic beer sales rose 159% and volume rose 111% from 2021 to 2025, reaching 2.5% of beer volume.NACS Daily, March 17th, 2026
IWSR reports non-alcoholic beer volume grew 9% in 2024 while total beer fell about 1%; Athletic Brewing holds 17% of category volume, up from 4% three years earlier.NBC News, via CNBC, May 29th, 2025
NielsenIQ data shows non-alcohol spirits volume more than doubled and value rose 67% in the year to date through August 2, 2025.Shanken News Daily, Aug 15th, 2025
Heineken 0.0 volumes rose at a low-single-digit rate in 2025, with double-digit growth in 20 markets.Just Drinks, March 16th, 2026

Public moves

Launched Heineken 0.0 Ultimate, a zero-sugar, zero-calorie non-alcoholic beer, in the U.S.Heineken, March 16th, 2026. Source
Announced Coors 0.0%, the first non-alcoholic beer under the Coors name, for the Northeast in May 2026 and nationwide in 2027.Molson Coors, May 5th, 2026. Source
Became an official partner of the San Francisco Giants, with beers sold at Oracle Park.Athletic Brewing, March 17th, 2026. Source
Announced Michelob Ultra Zero Lime, a 39-calorie non-alcoholic beer, nationwide.Anheuser-Busch, Jan 6th, 2026. Source
Took a minority stake in Hiyo, a non-alcoholic functional social tonic sold in about 3,000 locations.Constellation Brands, Feb 24th, 2025. Source

Earlier in the category

2010

Whole Foods pulled kombucha from several makers over alcohol above the 0.5% federal limit.

The 0.5% line defines "non-alcoholic" for fermented drinks as well as beer. Source

Claim rules

Avoid: Weight-loss promises, appetite or fat-blocking claims, and drug names such as Ozempic or "GLP-1 friendly" on drink copy.FTC's "Gut Check" guide (January 2014) lists claims it treats as false, including weight loss of two pounds or more a week without dieting or exercise, substantial weight loss no matter what or how much a consumer eats, and blocking fat or calorie absorption. Source

Avoid: CBD, cannabidiol, or THC on drink copy.FDA states that it is a prohibited act to introduce into interstate commerce any food to which THC or CBD has been added, and that THC and CBD products are excluded from the dietary supplement definition under section 201(ff)(3)(B). FDA says ingredients from parts of the cannabis plant that do not contain THC or CBD might fall outside that prohibition. Source

Avoid: "non-alcoholic," "alcohol free," or "0.0%" on a malt beverage label unless the TTB conditions are met.Under 27 CFR 7.65, "non-alcoholic" may be used on malt beverage labels only with the statement "contains less than 0.5 percent (or .5%) alcohol by volume" immediately adjacent, with no tolerance. A malt beverage may not state 0.0 percent unless it is also labeled "alcohol free," which is limited to products containing no alcohol. The TTB page consulted covers malt beverages and does not address distilled spirits. Source

Starting questions

What does a social drink need to do that a non-alcoholic beer does not?
If hemp THC drinks are restricted, who fills that occasion?
Can a spirits-style non-alcoholic drink earn a place in the grocery aisle, not just the bar?